M: Box Office

[Will]

I thought we could use a thread to track how TGC is doing at the box office. It was only out in the US today, so no reports from that market yet.

There's thison the UK release:

On its first day of release in the United Kingdom, New Line Cinema's "The Golden Compass" starring Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig scored a major box office success, garnering $1.9 million around the country on Wednesday. The film marks Entertainment Film Distributors' highest opening outside of New Line's "The Lord of the Rings" franchise.

In the UK, "The Golden Compass" out-grossed "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe," which had a $1.7 million opening in 2005.
So far, the New Line Cinema fantasy epic ranked #1 in seven territories: U.K., Spain, France, Finland, Norway, Thailand and the Philippines.

Variety add:

“At this early stage, all looks good for ‘The Golden Compass’ -- the big December release,” said a London-based booker. “While it is too early to jump for joy, the opening-day figure puts it on course for an opening five-day take of between £6 million ($12.3 million) and £7 million ($14.3 million) and a final gross of £30 million ($61.4 million).”

Pic faces little meaningful competition at the Brit B.O. this weekend -- most releases are indies aimed at arthouse auds. Reviews from U.K. critics have been positive to mixed.

[deathisgoingtodie]

Well, if it does well by monetary standards, the next two movies are almost definitely going to happen. You can bet your asses that New Line care a lot more about the money than they do the critics, or they wouldn't have insisted on it being under 2 hours.

If they do make 2 more...lets just hope Weitz makes some major changes...

[kulang]

Yesss! Some good news! The critics were starting to get me down. I couldn't stand it if the sequels weren't made.

[northernlights2]

Great topic, I was wondering why anyone isn't saying anything about this. I so hope it'll make it.. So far looks good!

I'm finding it a bit odd that many almost don't seem to hope for a sequel if they think GC wasn't good enough. It's just adaption and whether they'll be good or bad I for one want them to be made anyway. It's not like we have anything to lose.

[Grumman]

“At this early stage, all looks good for ‘The Golden Compass’ -- the big December release,” said a London-based booker. “While it is too early to jump for joy, the opening-day figure puts it on course for an opening five-day take of between £6 million ($12.3 million) and £7 million ($14.3 million) and a final gross of £30 million ($61.4 million).”

That would still be far below breakeven, wouldn't it? Of course the American market is much greater, so it's probably there where they'd expect to make real profits. It will be interesting to see. I think it's a very pertinent thread Will.

[Radrappy]

Way to be a team player Thailand!

[the truth]

this is great news!!!

[hoobits]

I had no doubt that it would do well in the UK, either better or just below LOTR.
Even if it flops in the US (And by flop I mean making only $30 million opening weekend, only getting to about $100 total), it is going to be the international stage that will decide if the next two are a go.
We will know Friday's US numbers by Saturday afternoon, which will give us an overall idea of its total weekend take.

[Ptokos]

Well this Hollywood-focused blog is claiming that it's going to be a "bomb" in the states.

Also, they're saying that it needs to make $50 mil here to be considered a success...

*shrug* Hey, nobody in this world has an alethiometer I guess we'll know soon enough.

I would like to see those sequels though... *crossed fingers for good luck*

[Phoenixashes]

I went to a midnight showing last night. It was a huge theater, and was nearly packed. A lot of younger adults, most of whom didn't appear to be fans of the books. However I got the general impression everyone enjoyed the film and were entertained. I will say the ending seemed to dissapoint people but they seemed to understand it was just the first installment.

After last night's experience I really feel as though the film will do very well

[Grumman]

Well this Also, they're saying that it needs to make $50 mil here to be considered a success...

61 + 50 = 111 < 200

Still too far from breakeven.

[Ivan Parslovich]

I saw it in the sneak peak Friday, should I go see it again?

[Bellerophon]

Grumman, the estimate cited in the link is just for the opening weekend. With a $50 million opening weekend TGC will almost certainly break even. Trouble is, the experts are predicting high-twenties. That would be bad.

[Phoenixashes]

I saw it in the sneak peak Friday, should I go see it again?

Yes, we should all do our part and see it a couple times and bring as many people as possible.

[Grumman]

Grumman, the estimate cited in the link is just for the opening weekend. With a $50 million opening weekend TGC will almost certainly break even. Trouble is, the experts are predicting high-twenties. That would be bad.

Thanks for clarifying.

[jessia]

i went to see a mid-afternoon showing for the opening day in my city. the cinema wasn't packed but it was decently full with a mix of young people give or take five years of my own age (there were fanboys of various children's favourites sitting behind me... i have to agree with them, the prince caspian trailer does look good) and families and then some of those random retired couples you see at theatres because no that they don't work they can see movies whenever they like. as the credits came up, most of the younger audience got up with "it was good, but" comments and a lot of the families and a few others stuck around explaining plot points to each other but overall it seemed like a positive reception.

box office tracking for tonight is 27m apparently.

[Grumman]

i went to see a mid-afternoon showing for the opening day in my city.

Was that Toronto or Montréal? Would you expect a similar attitude in both?

[jessia]

i went to see a mid-afternoon showing for the opening day in my city.

Was that Toronto or Montréal? Would you expect a similar attitude in both?

this was in montreal. i think the attitude would be pretty similar. all my excited friends are in toronto anyways. i'll probably be seeing it again when i get there and that'll be another ten dollars for the box office. (canada's included in american box office calculations... which is bad for some reasons but awesome because we don't have to worry about late releases like australia or sometimes britain does)

[randomthotz]

I saw it in Toronto at one. I thought, hey, these kids should be in school, so the audience would skew older leaving for a more enjoyable and undistracted viewing. However, when I was approaching the box office, there was a gr.5-ish class in line. A glance at the movie list, and yep, they were there for TGC. However, there were so well-behaved, I almost felt bad I judged them straightaway. *almost* On top of the class, there were quite a few people. My theatre was probably 1/2 - 2/3 full, which wasn't too bad.

On my way to another movie, I overheard one of the kids call it "The Best Movie This Year!"

61 + 50 = 111 < 200

Still too far from breakeven.

The breakeven number is far higher than 200, or even the supposed budget of 250. We have to consider the costs to promote the film as well, on top of other miscellaneous things. My personal guess would be anywhere between 350 and 500 million.

[jessia]

The breakeven number is far higher than 200, or even the supposed budget of 250. We have to consider the costs to promote the film as well, on top of other miscellaneous things. My personal guess would be anywhere between 350 and 500 million.

and article that came out about a month before the release cited promotional costs within the budget of around 200m. it was worth quite a bit though.